The Fermi Paradox: "Where is everybody?"

Intelligent life almost certainly exists elsewhere in the universe, but there's no evidence they've ever been here.

Aug 15, 2023

“But, where is everybody?”

Italian physicist Enrico Fermi is famous for pioneering the first self-sustained chain atomic reaction — i.e. splitting the atom. Fermi’s work in the 1930s helped lay the foundation for the Manhattan Project, the development of the atomic bomb1, and the future of nuclear energy. It also won him the 1938 Nobel Prize in Physics.

But Fermi also is attached to another scientific precept — a conundrum, really — for which he is recognized today as much as for his nuclear achievements.

In the summer of 1950, Fermi was in Chicago with fellow physicists Edward Teller, Herbert York, and Emil Konopinski. While at lunch, the group discussed recent UFO reports and the possibility of faster-than-light travel.2

The conversation moved on to other topics until Fermi startled his contemporaries with the glaring question about alien visitors:

“But … where is everybody?”

Thus was the informal, unvarnished birth of the Fermi Paradox.

The Fermi Paradox

The conflict between the argument that mathematical odds and probability seem to favor intelligent life being common in the universe vs. the lack of evidence of such life existing anywhere other than on Earth.

Fermi had a point, one that is still relevant some 73 years later. Despite Agent Mulder’s relentless campaign on The X Files and the oft-heard claims of government shenanigans going on at Area 51, there remains zero empirical evidence that Earth has ever had cosmic visitors.

None. Zero. Zilch. Nada.

Sorry, conspiracy theorists. Until E.T. appears before a live television audience to ask “Take me to your leader,” the idea will remain with those wanting to believe.

But what about …?

Most people believe we’re not alone in the Universe. Some of the reasons are logical and even probable.

Maybe Mulder was on to something. Here’s why …

The Odds

Plenary numbers would seem to make the probability a near certainty.

British rock star physicist Brian Cox recently estimated there are 2 trillion galaxies in the observable universe. Those galaxies contain 200 sextillion stars — that’s 200 billion trillion — or 200 with 21 zeroes.3

To calculate the estimated number of planets just add about nine more zeroes.

Those numbers are incomprehensible. Common sense stacks the odds overwhelmingly in E.T.’s favor. Then again, as physicists and cosmologists will testify, common sense doesn’t really apply to the Universe.

UFO’s (or UAPs)

UFO encounters (NASA now wants us to call them UAPs — Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena) date back to the hunter/gatherers, that is, if you give credence to primitive cave art and stone carvings.

UFO sightings happen every day around the globe. In the United States alone, the National UFO Reporting Center has 80,000+ sightings on file.

And interest in “Close Encounters” is gaining traction. As recently as two weeks ago Congress formally broached the subject of UFOs, including eyewitness reports from highly reputable military pilots and surveillance personnel.

Then there are tens of thousands of photos, videos of strange distant lights, crop circles, and claimants of alien abduction.

And, of course, there’s Roswell. And Marvin the Martian.

Ancient Aliens

Planet Earth is home to some spectacular relics from bygone eras, constructions that seem to defy the technological capabilities of their time either because they’re too big, too heavy, or too complex.

As such, some suggest the ancient builders of the Egyptian pyramids, the Nasca lines, and others were following an extraterrestrial instruction manual. Perhaps the hands that crafted these sites weren’t really of this world.

The Drake Equation

In 1961, astronomer Frank Drake was the first to take a crack at solving the Fermi Paradox. He developed the Drake equation, a mathematical formula that estimates the number of intelligent civilizations in our galaxy based on different factors.4

The equation goes like this …

It is estimated that the Milky Way has at least one billion Earth-like planets in a circumstellar habitable zone. If Earth-like planets are typical, some may have developed intelligent life long ago. Others may exist now or will evolve in the future. Or they may not have, and never will.

The Drake Equation is not definitive. It is a theory with a progressive number of probabilities running from certain to uncertain. Moreover, the equation is intractable and one of the most unquantifiable in science.

In other words, Drake strung together a series of educated guesses.

However, the Drake Equation does intimate that the odds of advanced life evolving on a habitable planet are astonishingly low.

Here’s a sampling of the possibilities brought forth by Drake’s Equation as potential solutions to Fermi’s Paradox …

Self-Destruction

This theory suggests that advanced civilizations have or will self-destruct, either through war, environmental or biological collapse or other premeditated apocalypse.

The late Stephen Hawking once forwarded the notion that advanced societies inevitably reach a breaking point where technological progress and civilization are no longer mutually sustainable.

Cynical, no doubt. And indeed a very human perspective.

Alien Isolation: Way too far

This theory proposes that other civilizations might exist, but they are too far away to communicate with us.

Remember, the universe is big. Really, really big. Cosmologists posit that the Universe is 93 billion light-years across and still expanding. And here’s the weird part — they suggest it doesn’t have a geometric shape. (A topic for another essay)

Consider this: Voyager 1, launched in 1977, is the most distant man-made object in interstellar space, currently about 13.3 billion miles from Earth. It has been traveling for 46 years. However, in light time (186,000 miles per second), that’s 22 hours and 2 minutes … less than a light day.

The nearest star next to our Sun is Alpha Centauri, which is 4.2 light years away, or roughly 25 trillion miles. If Voyager 1 was aimed toward Alpha Centauri, at its current speed (38,450 mph) it would take another 60,000 years to get there.

If there’s life out there, we’re not close to making a house call.

Zoo Hypothesis

This hypothesis suggests that advanced civilizations know we’re here, and have the capability to contact us, but are deliberately choosing not to engage. Perhaps they want to avoid interfering with our development or are just content to observe.

Or maybe they have taken a look at us and said “No thanks.”

Cosmic Catastrophes

Cosmic events like supernovas, black hole merging, gamma-ray bursts, gravitational waves or asteroid impacts might be responsible for wiping out advanced civilizations.

Science has counted six extinction events on Earth over 4-plus billion years (think dinosaurs). So it’s certainly possible elsewhere.

Radio Silence

Other civilizations might be trying to communicate with us.

If they use radio waves, we haven't been able to detect them yet due to technological limitations. Our own radio waves have been filtering out to space since the 1930s.

Currently, the farthest signals are less than a light day away.

Rare Earth

The development of complex life forms on Earth was … very complex.

It has taken more than 4 billion years since life first emerged from the primordial ooze to become what we are today.

On Earth, all life's autopoietic systems require a supply of water in its liquid state for self-maintenance of their parts. Taken together, all transformations that underlie autopoiesis require six elements: carbon, nitrogen, hydrogen, oxygen, phosphorus, and sulfur.

So the conditions to make the chemistry work had to be just the right time, with just the right circumstances, with just the right balance of time, climate, and countless other variables … then progress through millions of evolutionary generations for us to take that one step beyond chimps.

All things considered, we really are a cosmic miracle.

We Haven't Looked Hard Enough

When Fermi made his famous remark, the only planets scientists knew about were in our own solar system.

Since then, despite the fantastic accomplishments of the James Web Space Telescope (JWST) and dozens of other earth- and space-bound telescopes, we’re still at the genesis of discovery. One scientist recently drew the analogy that if the Universe was an ocean we’ve studied about a single cup.

Also, a reminder. Humanity has been around for about 200,000 years and has been industrialized for about 200 years. So we’re really cosmic newbies. The odds that we overlap in time and space with a detectable alien civilization don't seem great.

But surely there are lilies in some intergalactic field out there, and a little girl is picking them or a Van Gogh is painting them.

Perhaps knowing that much is good enough for now.

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